AL Gottah vs AL Sahel SC
Match details. Second Division, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. AL Gottah are 27th on 1 point after 2 games, level on points with Afif, level on points with Al Loa. A win would take them above Afif. AL Sahel SC are 9th on 4 points after 3 games, level on points with Al Rawdhah, level on points with Al Taraji. A win would take them above Al Rawdhah.
Form. AL Gottah have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. In this competition AL Gottah have gone D L L L W D. AL Sahel SC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W.
The numbers. AL Gottah score 2.8 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. AL Sahel SC score 1.6 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal.
The case against. AL Gottah's record still gives them 35% to win.
The read. AL Sahel SC to win. An open game. AL Sahel SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AL Sahel SC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.21, 88% on the records (AL Gottah: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 at home; AL Sahel SC: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10). Backup: AL Gottah Over 0.5 Goals at 1.42. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: AL Gottah Under 1.5 goals (AL Gottah's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AL Gottah 1-2 AL Sahel SC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).