Match details. Turkiye Kupasi, 3rd Round. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 11:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Menemenspor AS have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W. Karacabey Belediyespor have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L.
The numbers. Menemenspor AS score 1.3 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets and four games without a goal. Menemenspor AS average 7.2 shots (2.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 3.5 cards a game. Karacabey Belediyespor score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Karacabey Belediyespor average 3.3 shots (1.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Menemenspor AS have won none, drawn one and lost three. None of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 27 Apr 2025, it finished Menemenspor AS 0-2 Karacabey Belediyespor.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 47%; four of the last four meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round) with penalties if level, and Karacabey Belediyespor are not clearly stronger. Menemenspor AS's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Karacabey Belediyespor or the draw. Both teams' records favour Karacabey Belediyespor; the meetings favour Karacabey Belediyespor.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Menemenspor AS or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Karacabey Belediyespor). Predicted score: Menemenspor AS 1-1 Karacabey Belediyespor (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).