CXCDX

21:00Thu 29 Oct

CAD

CAD

CD Xerez vs Cadiz

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Municipal de Chapín, Jerez de la Frontera.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Xerez have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D W L. Cadiz have won two, drawn three and lost five of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W D.

The numbers. CD Xerez score 0.9 and concede 0.7 a game in their last seven at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Cadiz score 1.4 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Cadiz average 11.1 shots (3.4 on target), 4.6 corners and 3.1 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

The case against. CD Xerez's record still gives them 44% to win.

The read. Cadiz to win. A tight game. CD Xerez are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 38%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Cadiz are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Under 4.5 Goals (Cadiz are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: CD Xerez 0-1 Cadiz (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Cadiz or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.23

CDX 7 of 10 (70%) · CAD 6 of 7 (86%)81.3%

Cadiz: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Xerez: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · both last 10: 80%

CD XEREZ GOALS

CD Xerez Under 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.40

CDX 6 of 7 (86%) · CAD 6 of 10 (60%)65.7%

CD Xerez scored under 1.5 in 6 of 7 at home · Cadiz conceded under 1.5 in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

CADIZ GOALS

Cadiz Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.16

CDX 7 of 10 (70%) · CAD 4 of 7 (57%)77%

Cadiz scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Xerez conceded in 4 of 7 at home · both last 10: 65%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.18

CDX 7 of 7 (100%) · CAD 9 of 10 (90%)95%

CD Xerez: the bet landed in 7 of 7 at home · Cadiz: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.24

CDX 7 of 7 (100%) · CAD 8 of 10 (80%)90%

CD Xerez: the bet landed in 7 of 7 at home · Cadiz: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Under 3.5 Goals (Cadiz are a clear winner - no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (Cadiz are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Cadiz are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 10.3%

CD Xerez goals →

Cadiz goals ↓

0-09%

1-09%

2-06%

3-02%

4-00.6%

5-00.1%

0-110%

1-114%

2-17%

3-13%

4-10.8%

5-10.2%

0-27%

1-29%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.5%

5-20.1%

0-33%

1-34%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD XEREZWDDLDLWDLW1.30 PPG

CADIZDDLLLDWLLW0.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD XEREZ HOMExCADIZ AWAY

0.70SCORED A GAME1.400.70CONCEDED A GAME1.4040%CLEAN SHEETS10%50%FAILED TO SCORE36%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

DRAW OR CADIZ (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.12POINTS A GAME0.89-0.12GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.91.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.48LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

30%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

96%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CD XEREZ OR DRAW

78%

NO · 80/85

CADIZ OR DRAW

48%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CD XEREZxCADIZ

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME1.600.80CONCEDED A GAME1.001.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.640%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%40%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES4.4–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES9.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

CD Xerez have scored in 50% of their games.

Cadiz have scored in 70% of their games.

CD Xerez kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Cadiz kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets