Match details. Serie D, Group B. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 17:30 Lagos time.
Form. Pavonese have won three, drawn three and lost three of their last nine, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W. Milan Futuro have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L W W.
The numbers. Pavonese score 0.9 and concede 1.2 a game over their last nine, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Pavonese average 5.5 corners and 1.0 cards a game. Milan Futuro score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets. Milan Futuro average 15.0 shots (5.7 on target), 5.3 corners and 2.7 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.
The case against. Pavonese's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Milan Futuro to win. Milan Futuro are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Milan Futuro.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Pavonese 0-1 Milan Futuro (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).