CNCDN

18:00Thu 29 Oct

REA

CD Numancia vs Real Oviedo

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time. It is played at Nuevo Estadio Los Pajaritos, Soria.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Numancia have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D D W. Real Oviedo have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W L W.

The numbers. CD Numancia score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Real Oviedo score 1.7 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Real Oviedo average 15.9 shots (5.5 on target), 5.6 corners and 3.6 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last eight meetings CD Numancia have won two, drawn three and lost three. Four of the eight went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, CD Numancia won one, one was drawn and Real Oviedo won two. The last time they met, on 28 Jun 2020, it finished CD Numancia 1-0 Real Oviedo: CD Numancia had 11 shots to 11, 50% of the ball, five yellow cards.

The case against. CD Numancia's record still gives them 34% to win.

The read. Real Oviedo or the draw. A tight game. Real Oviedo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Oviedo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: CD Numancia Under 1.5 goals (Real Oviedo's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Both Teams to Score - No (the signs point different ways); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: CD Numancia 1-1 Real Oviedo (13% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Real Oviedo or Under 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.15

CDN 3 of 6 (50%) · REA 5 of 5 (100%)82.1%

Real Oviedo: the bet landed in 3 of 6 away · CD Numancia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · both last 10: 85% · H2H 5 of 6

Real Oviedo or draw and under 3.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.55

CDN 2 of 5 (40%) · REA 3 of 6 (50%)51.5%

CD Numancia: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · Real Oviedo: the bet landed in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 55% · H2H 2 of 6

GOALS

Under 3.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.26

CDN 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 3 of 6 (50%)71.9%

CD Numancia: under 3.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Real Oviedo: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 6 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6

Under 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.71

CDN 4 of 5 (80%) · REA 1 of 6 (17%)57.7%

CD Numancia: under 2.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Real Oviedo: under 2.5 goals in 1 of 6 away · both last 10: 60% · H2H 3 of 6

Left off the list: CD Numancia Under 1.5 goals (Real Oviedo's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Both Teams to Score - No (the numbers (47%) and the records (56%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 13.3%

CD Numancia goals →

Real Oviedo goals ↓

0-08%

1-09%

2-07%

3-03%

4-01.0%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-113%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.3%

0-26%

1-28%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31.0%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-40.7%

3-40.3%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD NUMANCIALLWWDWDDDL1.30 PPG

REAL OVIEDOLWDWLWLWWD1.70 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD NUMANCIA HOMExREAL OVIEDO AWAY

0.90SCORED A GAME1.500.70CONCEDED A GAME1.2060%CLEAN SHEETS40%38%FAILED TO SCORE27%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.62POINTS A GAME1.89+0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.44–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.71.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES9

Real Oviedo: the quality side - better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

61%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

34%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

89%

OKAY · 85/90

CD NUMANCIA OR DRAW

62%

NO · 80/85

REAL OVIEDO OR DRAW

60%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CD NUMANCIAxREAL OVIEDO

5GAMES50.80SCORED A GAME2.000.80CONCEDED A GAME1.601.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.640%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%20%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE80%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES7.6–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES12.8

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 8

CD NUMANCIA 2 · 25%DRAW 3REAL OVIEDO 3 · 38%

4 of 8BOTH TEAMS SCORED

5 of 8OVER 1.5 GOALS

4 of 8OVER 2.5 GOALS

3 of 8OVER 3.5 GOALS

2016-10-02CD Numancia 2 – 2 Real Oviedo

2017-03-11CD Numancia 0 – 0 Real Oviedo

2017-11-25CD Numancia 1 – 3 Real Oviedo

2018-04-29CD Numancia 3 – 0 Real Oviedo

2019-01-07CD Numancia 2 – 3 Real Oviedo

2019-05-19CD Numancia 0 – 1 Real Oviedo

2019-10-06CD Numancia 1 – 1 Real Oviedo

2020-06-28CD Numancia 1 – 0 Real Oviedo

TRENDS

CD Numancia have scored in 60% of their games.

Real Oviedo have scored in 80% of their games.

CD Numancia kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.

Real Oviedo kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetshead to head