CCCDC

20:00Thu 29 Oct

VAL

VAL

CD Covadonga vs Valladolid

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio El Bayu, Pola de Siero, a neutral ground.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Covadonga have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. Valladolid have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W.

The numbers. CD Covadonga score 2.5 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Valladolid score 1.6 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Valladolid average 13.6 shots (5.5 on target), 4.9 corners and 4.0 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.

The case against. CD Covadonga's record still gives them 50% to win.

The read. Valladolid to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make CD Covadonga the likelier winners; CD Covadonga are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Covadonga. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 75%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Valladolid are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Valladolid are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: CD Covadonga 1-2 Valladolid (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Valladolid or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

CDC 9 of 10 (90%) · VAL 10 of 10 (100%)96.2%

Valladolid: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Covadonga: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Valladolid or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.12

CDC 7 of 10 (70%) · VAL 9 of 10 (90%)78.8%

Valladolid: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · CD Covadonga: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

CDC 10 of 10 (100%) · VAL 8 of 10 (80%)92.5%

CD Covadonga: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Valladolid: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.51

CDC 9 of 10 (90%) · VAL 6 of 10 (60%)68.8%

CD Covadonga: over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Valladolid: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.16

CDC 10 of 10 (100%) · VAL 8 of 10 (80%)90%

CD Covadonga: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Valladolid: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.23

CDC 8 of 10 (80%) · VAL 8 of 10 (80%)80%

CD Covadonga: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Valladolid: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (Valladolid are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Valladolid are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 6.7%

CD Covadonga goals →

Valladolid goals ↓

0-03%

1-05%

2-06%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.8%

0-14%

1-19%

2-19%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-27%

2-27%

3-25%

4-22%

5-21.0%

0-32%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-31%

5-30.5%

0-40.6%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.9%

4-40.5%

5-40.2%

0-50.2%

1-50.4%

2-50.4%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.1%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

CD COVADONGALLWDWWWLWW1.90 PPG

VALLADOLIDLDWLDWDWLL1.20 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD COVADONGA HOMExVALLADOLID AWAY

2.50SCORED A GAME1.601.40CONCEDED A GAME1.4040%CLEAN SHEETS20%0%FAILED TO SCORE27%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

TRENDS

CD Covadonga have scored in 100% of their games.

Valladolid have scored in 80% of their games.

CD Covadonga kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Valladolid kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets