Fidelis Andria vs Virtus Francavilla Calcio
Match details. Coppa Italia Serie D, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Fidelis Andria have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. Virtus Francavilla Calcio have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W L. In this competition Virtus Francavilla Calcio have gone W.
The numbers. Fidelis Andria score 1.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Fidelis Andria average 11.4 shots (4.2 on target), 3.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game. Virtus Francavilla Calcio score two and concede one a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets. Virtus Francavilla Calcio average 16.4 shots (6.2 on target), 5.6 corners and 2.6 cards a game.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Fidelis Andria have won three, drawn one and lost five. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Fidelis Andria won three and Virtus Francavilla Calcio won one. The last time they met, on 18 Oct 2026, it finished Fidelis Andria 2-1 Virtus Francavilla Calcio.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and Virtus Francavilla Calcio are not clearly stronger. Fidelis Andria's record still gives them 36% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%.
The read. Virtus Francavilla Calcio or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Virtus Francavilla Calcio the likelier winners; Virtus Francavilla Calcio are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Virtus Francavilla Calcio. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Fidelis Andria 1-1 Virtus Francavilla Calcio (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).