AMACM

15:00Wed 28 Oct

CAT

AC Milan vs Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19

CLASS E

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THE READ

Match details. ItP. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 15:00 Lagos time.

Form. AC Milan have won two, drawn none and lost three of their last five league games, 1.2 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W L L W. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 have won five, drawn none and lost none of their last five league games, 3.0 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W W W W W.

The numbers. AC Milan score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game over their last five, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. AC Milan average 0.9 shots, 1.5 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 51% of the ball. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 score 2.8 and concede 0.4 a game over their last five, with three clean sheets. Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 average 5.7 shots (3.3 on target), 4.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 23% against the records' 80%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 40%.

The read. No firm call: Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 are the better side, but not at this price. Their goals for and against make Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 the likelier winners; Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19.

The bets. No best bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: AC Milan 1-1 Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 (11% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 the favourite), goals in between.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · CAT 4 of 5 (80%)80%

AC Milan: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19: under 4.5 goals in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · AC Milan: only games against sides at Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19's level · Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19: only games against sides at AC Milan's level

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.27

ACM 4 of 5 (80%) · CAT 5 of 5 (100%)90%

AC Milan: the bet landed in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores · AC Milan: only games against sides at Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19's level · Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19: only games against sides at AC Milan's level

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 10.9%

AC Milan goals →

Catanzaro Calcio 2011… goals ↓

0-06%

1-05%

2-03%

3-00.8%

4-00.2%

5-00.0%

0-110%

1-111%

2-15%

3-12%

4-10.4%

5-10.1%

0-211%

1-210%

2-25%

3-21%

4-20.3%

5-20.1%

0-37%

1-36%

2-33%

3-30.9%

4-30.2%

5-30.0%

0-43%

1-43%

2-41%

3-40.5%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-51%

1-51%

2-50.6%

3-50.2%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 6

AC MILANLWLLLW1.00 PPG

CATANZARO CALCIO 2011 U19WWWWWW3.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

AC MILAN HOMExCATANZARO CALCIO 2011 U19 AWAY

1.25SCORED A GAME2.831.50CONCEDED A GAME0.6738%BOTH SCORED50%25%CLEAN SHEETS50%1.50CORNERS A GAME4.671.25CARDS A GAME3.33

TRENDS

AC Milan have scored in 63% of their games.

Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 have scored in 100% of their games.

AC Milan kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games.

Catanzaro Calcio 2011 U19 kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscorners