Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
Form. Kenya Commercial Bank have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Mombasa United FC have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L W W.
The numbers. Kenya Commercial Bank score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. Kenya Commercial Bank average 10.1 shots (3.2 on target), 4.7 corners and 1.1 cards a game. Mombasa United FC score one and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Mombasa United FC average 10.6 shots (2.3 on target), 5.0 corners and 1.0 cards a game.
The case against. Mombasa United FC's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Kenya Commercial Bank to win. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (Kenya Commercial Bank are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 2.5 Goals (Kenya Commercial Bank are a clear winner, no Unders); Kenya Commercial Bank 1UP (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Kenya Commercial Bank 1-0 Mombasa United FC (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).