EFEMP

14:45Wed 28 Oct

PER

PER

Empoli FC vs Perugia

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. ItP. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 14:45 Lagos time.

Form. Empoli FC have won three, drawn two and lost one of their last six league games, 1.8 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: L W D W W. Perugia have won four, drawn none and lost one of their last five league games, 2.4 points a game. Their last five in the league, newest first: W L W W W.

The numbers. Empoli FC score 1.7 and concede 1.5 a game over their last six, with one clean sheet. Empoli FC average 2.2 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. Perugia score three and concede 0.6 a game over their last five, with three clean sheets. Perugia average 12.3 shots (6.3 on target), 6.0 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 62% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 22% against the records' 48%.

The read. No firm call: Perugia are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Perugia the likelier winners; both teams' records favour Perugia. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 63%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Empoli FC 1-2 Perugia (10% chance).

The agreed story. No side to back (Perugia the favourite), an open game.

Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.

So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Double Chance: Empoli FC or PerugiaIN CODES

1.18

EMP 4 of 6 (67%) · PER 5 of 5 (100%)65.3%

Empoli FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Perugia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · Empoli FC: only games against sides at Perugia's level · Perugia: only games against sides at Empoli FC's level

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.26

EMP 4 of 6 (67%) · PER 5 of 5 (100%)83.3%

Empoli FC: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Perugia: the bet landed in 5 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · on half-time scores · Empoli FC: only games against sides at Perugia's level · Perugia: only games against sides at Empoli FC's level

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.15

EMP 5 of 6 (83%) · PER 3 of 5 (60%)71.7%

Empoli FC: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Perugia: the bet landed in 3 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 72% · on half-time scores · Empoli FC: only games against sides at Perugia's level · Perugia: only games against sides at Empoli FC's level

Left off the list: Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 9.8%

Empoli FC goals →

Perugia goals ↓

0-04%

1-04%

2-03%

3-01%

4-00.3%

5-00.1%

0-18%

1-110%

2-16%

3-12%

4-10.6%

5-10.1%

0-28%

1-210%

2-26%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-36%

1-37%

2-34%

3-32%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-43%

1-44%

2-42%

3-40.8%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-51%

1-51%

2-50.9%

3-50.3%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 6

EMPOLI FCLWDWWD1.83 PPG

PERUGIAWLWWWW2.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

EMPOLI FC HOMExPERUGIA AWAY

1.63SCORED A GAME3.001.38CONCEDED A GAME0.5075%BOTH SCORED17%25%CLEAN SHEETS67%2.25CARDS A GAME2.33

TRENDS

Empoli FC have scored in 100% of their games.

Perugia have scored in 83% of their games.

Empoli FC kept a clean sheet in 25% of their games.

Perugia kept a clean sheet in 67% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets