Sagan Tosu vs Kawasaki Frontale
Match details. Jp1, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time. It is played at Ekimae Real Estate Stadium, Tosu.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Sagan Tosu have won four, drawn none and lost two of their last six, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W W. Kawasaki Frontale have won five, drawn none and lost none of their last five, 3.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Kawasaki Frontale have gone W W W.
The numbers. Sagan Tosu score 1.3 and concede 0.8 a game over their last six, with two clean sheets. Sagan Tosu average 13.0 shots (5.6 on target), 7.2 corners and 0.6 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Kawasaki Frontale score 2.6 and concede 0.8 a game over their last five, with two clean sheets. Kawasaki Frontale average 14.3 shots (5.1 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.2 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Sagan Tosu have won two, drawn three and lost five. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Sagan Tosu won one and Kawasaki Frontale won three.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 61%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Sagan Tosu's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Kawasaki Frontale to win. Their goals for and against make Kawasaki Frontale the likelier winners; Kawasaki Frontale are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Kawasaki Frontale; the meetings favour Kawasaki Frontale.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Sagan Tosu 0-1 Kawasaki Frontale (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).