INTERNATIONAL CLUBS - AFC CHAMPIONS LEAGUE TWO

TPTAI

13:15Thu 29 Oct

BGP

Tai Po FC vs BG Pathum United

CLASS E

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. AFC Champions League Two, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 13:15 Lagos time. It is played at Mong Kok Stadium, Hong Kong, a neutral ground.

What's at stake. Tai Po FC are 4th on 0 points after 2 games, 1 point behind BG Pathum United. A win would take them above BG Pathum United. BG Pathum United are 3rd on 1 point after 2 games, 3 points behind Home United, 1 point clear of Wofoo Tai Po. A win would take them level on points with Home United.

Form. Tai Po FC have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L D W. In this competition Tai Po FC have gone L L. BG Pathum United have won two, drawn four and lost four of their last ten, 1.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D L D. In this competition BG Pathum United have gone L D.

The numbers. Tai Po FC score two and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. Tai Po FC average 11.8 shots (5.1 on target), 5.2 corners and 2.0 cards a game. BG Pathum United score 1.1 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. BG Pathum United average 13.5 shots (4.2 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 14% against the records' 45%.

The read. No firm call: Tai Po FC are the better side, but not at this price. Tai Po FC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tai Po FC.

The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: BG Pathum United Under 1.5 goals (Tai Po FC's own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: Tai Po FC 1-1 BG Pathum United (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Tai Po FC or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TAI 9 of 10 (90%) · BGP 9 of 10 (90%)90%

Tai Po FC: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Tai Po FC or Both Teams ScoreIN CODES

1.60

TAI 7 of 10 (70%) · BGP 8 of 10 (80%)75%

Tai Po FC: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TAI 10 of 10 (100%) · BGP 9 of 10 (90%)95%

Tai Po FC: over 0.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

TAI 8 of 10 (80%) · BGP 10 of 10 (100%)90%

Tai Po FC: under 5.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: under 5.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.20

TAI 9 of 10 (90%) · BGP 7 of 10 (70%)80%

Tai Po FC: over 1.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: over 1.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80%

Under 4.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.19

TAI 6 of 10 (60%) · BGP 8 of 10 (80%)70%

Tai Po FC: under 4.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: under 4.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 70%

BOTH TEAMS SCORE

Both Teams to Score - YesLEANPAGE ONLY

1.81

TAI 7 of 10 (70%) · BGP 6 of 10 (60%)65%

Tai Po FC: both scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: both scored in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

TAI PO FC GOALS

Tai Po FC Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.62

TAI 7 of 10 (70%) · BGP 8 of 10 (80%)75%

Tai Po FC scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United conceded in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

BG PATHUM UNITED GOALS

BG Pathum United Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

TAI 7 of 10 (70%) · BGP 10 of 10 (100%)85%

BG Pathum United scored in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · Tai Po FC conceded in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.29

TAI 8 of 10 (80%) · BGP 9 of 10 (90%)85%

Tai Po FC: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

TAI 10 of 10 (100%) · BGP 7 of 10 (70%)85%

Tai Po FC: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · BG Pathum United: the bet landed in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: BG Pathum United Under 1.5 goals (Tai Po FC's own games don't back it (4 of 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–1 11.8%

Tai Po FC goals →

BG Pathum United goals ↓

0-06%

1-07%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01%

5-00.4%

0-16%

1-112%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-25%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.4%

0-32%

1-34%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.8%

1-41%

2-41.0%

3-40.5%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.2%

1-50.3%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).

FORM · LAST 10

TAI PO FCLWWLLWDLWW1.60 PPG

BG PATHUM UNITEDLDWDLDLDLW1.00 PPG

THE NUMBERS

TAI PO FC HOMExBG PATHUM UNITED AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.101.70CONCEDED A GAME1.200%CLEAN SHEETS30%17%FAILED TO SCORE17%5.20CORNERS A GAME4.832.00CARDS A GAME2.00

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.67POINTS A GAME1.50+0.50GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.33+2.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-1.22.0LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.66LEAGUE GAMES6

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

95%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

47%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

55%

NO · 85/90

TAI PO FC OR DRAW

85%

OKAY · 80/85

BG PATHUM UNITED OR DRAW

52%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (6 and 6 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

TAI PO FCxBG PATHUM UNITED

5GAMES52.60SCORED A GAME1.801.60CONCEDED A GAME1.404.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.2100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS40%100%BOTH SCORE80%3.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES–11.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Tai Po FC have scored in 70% of their games.

BG Pathum United have scored in 90% of their games.

Tai Po FC kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BG Pathum United kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards