Marseille vs Toulouse
Match details. Ligue 1, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Orange Vélodrome, Marseille. The referee is Hakim Ben el Hadj.
What's at stake. Marseille are 9th on 12 points after 8 games, 1 point behind Lens, level on points with Lorient. A win would take them above Lens. Toulouse are 11th on 10 points after 8 games, 2 points behind Lorient, level on points with Strasbourg. A win would take them above Lorient.
Team news. Marseille are without D. Cornelius (hip injury), D. Cornelius (hip injury). Toulouse are without R. Messali (thigh injury), M. Niflore (knee injury), R. Messali (thigh injury), M. Niflore (knee injury).
Form. Marseille have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L W. Toulouse have won three, drawn five and lost two of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D W D.
The numbers. Marseille score 1.5 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal. Marseille average 10.9 shots (3.9 on target), 4.8 corners and 1.8 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. Toulouse score 1.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Toulouse average 10.7 shots (4.3 on target), 4.2 corners and 2.4 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Marseille have won six, drawn three and lost none. Six of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Marseille won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 7 Mar 2026, it finished Marseille 1-0 Toulouse: Marseille had 10 shots to 12, 51% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 52% against the records' 31%.
The read. No firm call: Marseille are the better side, but not at this price. A draw is live. An open game. Their goals for and against make Marseille the likelier winners; the meetings favour Marseille. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%. Six of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.15, 77% on the records (Marseille: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7; Toulouse: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.18. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Marseille 2-1 Toulouse (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).