UPUDP

19:00Thu 29 Oct

ADC

UD Poblense vs AD Ceuta

CLASS A

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey action is here. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 19:00 Lagos time.

Form. UD Poblense have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, getting 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first, are W D W L W. AD Ceuta have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, with 0.5 points a game. Their last five show L L L D W.

The numbers. UD Poblense score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. AD Ceuta score 0.9 and concede two a game over their last ten, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal.

The case against. UD Poblense's record still gives them 60% to win. Not everything agrees on goals, as their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. AD Ceuta to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make UD Poblense the likelier winners. UD Poblense are the stronger side on form and the table, and both teams' records favour UD Poblense.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: UD Poblense Under 1.5 goals (AD Ceuta's own games don't back it (3 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (AD Ceuta are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (AD Ceuta are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: UD Poblense 1-2 AD Ceuta (5% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

AD Ceuta or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

UDP 10 of 10 (100%) · ADC 2 of 5 (40%)76.8%

AD Ceuta: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · UD Poblense: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80%

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.21

UDP 2 of 5 (40%) · ADC 10 of 10 (100%)76.8%

UD Poblense: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: over 1.5 goals in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.72

UDP 2 of 5 (40%) · ADC 6 of 10 (60%)56.2%

UD Poblense: over 2.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: over 2.5 goals in 6 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 50%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.13

UDP 5 of 5 (100%) · ADC 10 of 10 (100%)100%

UD Poblense: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.21

UDP 3 of 5 (60%) · ADC 10 of 10 (100%)78.3%

UD Poblense: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: the bet landed in 10 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.23

UDP 3 of 5 (60%) · ADC 8 of 10 (80%)73.3%

UD Poblense: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.51

UDP 3 of 5 (60%) · ADC 8 of 10 (80%)71.7%

UD Poblense: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · AD Ceuta: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: UD Poblense Under 1.5 goals (AD Ceuta's own games don't back it (3 of 10)); Under 4.5 Goals (AD Ceuta are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (AD Ceuta are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 5.2%

UD Poblense goals →

AD Ceuta goals ↓

0-010%

1-013%

2-011%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-17%

1-113%

2-19%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.6%

0-23%

1-25%

2-24%

3-22%

4-20.8%

5-20.2%

0-31.0%

1-31%

2-31%

3-30.6%

4-30.2%

5-30.1%

0-40.2%

1-40.3%

2-40.2%

3-40.1%

4-40.0%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.1%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

UD POBLENSEDDLLLWLWDW1.20 PPG

AD CEUTALLLLDWDLLL0.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

UD POBLENSE HOMExAD CEUTA AWAY

0.80SCORED A GAME0.901.00CONCEDED A GAME2.0040%CLEAN SHEETS0%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.00POINTS A GAME0.56-0.43GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-1.00–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.21.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME0.87LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

92%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

65%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

98%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

UD POBLENSE OR DRAW

83%

OKAY · 80/85

AD CEUTA OR DRAW

32%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

UD POBLENSExAD CEUTA

5GAMES51.20SCORED A GAME1.401.40CONCEDED A GAME1.802.6GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%60%BOTH SCORE100%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.0–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.0

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

UD Poblense have scored in 60% of their games.

AD Ceuta have scored in 70% of their games.

UD Poblense kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

AD Ceuta kept a clean sheet in 0% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets