JOS Watergraafsmeer vs NAC Breda
Match details. KNVB beker, Round of 64. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. JOS Watergraafsmeer have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L D L. In this competition JOS Watergraafsmeer have gone W. NAC Breda have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W D W.
The numbers. JOS Watergraafsmeer score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. NAC Breda score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. NAC Breda average 17.5 shots (6.4 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 52%.
The read. No firm call: NAC Breda are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make NAC Breda the likelier winners; NAC Breda are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour NAC Breda. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 68%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (NAC Breda are a clear winner, no Unders); NAC Breda Over 1.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (NAC Breda are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: JOS Watergraafsmeer 1-2 NAC Breda (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).