Match details. Puchar Polski, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Polsat Plus Arena Gdańsk. The referee is T. Kwiatkowski.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. KS Lechia Gdansk have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. In this competition KS Lechia Gdansk have gone W. Jagiellonia Bialystok have won three, drawn none and lost seven of their last ten, 0.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W L.
The numbers. KS Lechia Gdansk score 2.2 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. KS Lechia Gdansk average 13.8 shots (5.8 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Jagiellonia Bialystok score one and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Jagiellonia Bialystok average 11.8 shots (3.0 on target), 3.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 53% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings KS Lechia Gdansk have won three, drawn two and lost five. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, KS Lechia Gdansk won two and Jagiellonia Bialystok won two. The last time they met, on 6 Mar 2026, it finished KS Lechia Gdansk 3-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok: KS Lechia Gdansk had 10 shots to 12, 36% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. KS Lechia Gdansk's record still gives them 61% to win.
The read. Jagiellonia Bialystok to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make KS Lechia Gdansk the likelier winners; KS Lechia Gdansk are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour KS Lechia Gdansk. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 69%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Jagiellonia Bialystok are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: KS Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Jagiellonia Bialystok (5% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).