Csepel SC vs Debreceni VSC
Match details. Magyar Kupa, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 12:30 Lagos time. It is played at Béke téri Stadion, Budapest.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Csepel SC have won five, drawn three and lost two of their last ten, 1.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D. In this competition Csepel SC have gone W. Debreceni VSC have won four, drawn four and lost two of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. In this competition Debreceni VSC have gone W.
The numbers. Csepel SC score 3.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Csepel SC average 9.1 shots (4.8 on target), 4.2 corners and 1.6 cards a game. Debreceni VSC score 1.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets. Debreceni VSC average 14.3 shots (6.0 on target), 6.7 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 4% against the records' 31%.
The read. No firm call: Csepel SC are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Csepel SC the likelier winners; Csepel SC are the stronger side on form and the table. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Csepel SC or Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Csepel SC 2-1 Debreceni VSC (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).