EMEXC

21:00Wed 28 Oct

SCH

Excelsior Maassluis vs SC Heerenveen

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. KNVB beker, Round of 64. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sportpark Dijkpolder, Maassluis. The referee is A. Lindhout.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Excelsior Maassluis have won eight, drawn one and lost one of their last ten, 2.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W. In this competition Excelsior Maassluis have gone W. SC Heerenveen have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D.

The numbers. Excelsior Maassluis score two and concede 0.4 a game in their last five at home, with four clean sheets. Excelsior Maassluis average 2.0 corners and 0.0 cards a game. SC Heerenveen score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. SC Heerenveen average 16.5 shots (5.8 on target), 5.2 corners and 0.8 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.

The case against. Excelsior Maassluis's record still gives them 52% to win.

The read. SC Heerenveen to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Excelsior Maassluis the likelier winners; Excelsior Maassluis are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Excelsior Maassluis. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 57%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (SC Heerenveen are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (SC Heerenveen are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Excelsior Maassluis 1-2 SC Heerenveen (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.11

EXC 2 of 5 (40%) · SCH 5 of 5 (100%)72.9%

Excelsior Maassluis: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · SC Heerenveen: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsLEANHELD · the odds board 84%

1.19

EXC 2 of 5 (40%) · SCH 4 of 5 (80%)61.8%

Excelsior Maassluis: the bet landed in 2 of 5 at home · SC Heerenveen: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 65% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (SC Heerenveen are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (SC Heerenveen are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 6.8%

Excelsior Maassluis goals →

SC Heerenveen goals ↓

0-06%

1-08%

2-08%

3-04%

4-02%

5-00.7%

0-16%

1-112%

2-110%

3-15%

4-12%

5-10.8%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21%

5-20.5%

0-32%

1-33%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.6%

5-30.2%

0-40.5%

1-40.8%

2-40.7%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

EXCELSIOR MAASSLUISLDWWWWWWWW2.50 PPG

SC HEERENVEENWDLDLDWLWW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

EXCELSIOR MAASSLUIS HOMExSC HEERENVEEN AWAY

2.00SCORED A GAME1.800.70CONCEDED A GAME1.3070%CLEAN SHEETS40%18%FAILED TO SCORE30%2.00CORNERS A GAME5.250.00CARDS A GAME0.75

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

DRAW OR SC HEERENVEEN (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

TRENDS

Excelsior Maassluis have scored in 90% of their games.

SC Heerenveen have scored in 70% of their games.

Excelsior Maassluis kept a clean sheet in 70% of their games.

SC Heerenveen kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards