MVV Maastricht vs Excelsior Rotterdam
Match details. KNVB beker, Round of 64. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at De Geusselt, Maastricht. The referee is A. Bos.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. MVV Maastricht have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. Excelsior Rotterdam have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L.
The numbers. MVV Maastricht score one and concede two a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. MVV Maastricht average 9.4 shots (2.5 on target), 4.4 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 55% of the ball. Excelsior Rotterdam score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Excelsior Rotterdam average 10.5 shots (3.4 on target), 3.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 43% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings MVV Maastricht have won one, drawn two and lost six. Five of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, one was drawn and Excelsior Rotterdam won three. The last time they met, on 4 Apr 2025, it finished MVV Maastricht 1-2 Excelsior Rotterdam: MVV Maastricht had 8 shots to 13, 39% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 71% against the records' 45%. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%; five of the last nine meetings went over 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Excelsior Rotterdam are the better side, but not at this price. Excelsior Rotterdam are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Excelsior Rotterdam; the meetings favour Excelsior Rotterdam.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Leave: Both Teams to Score - Yes (the signs point different ways); MVV Maastricht Under 1.5 goals (Excelsior Rotterdam's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Excelsior Rotterdam Over 1.5 goals (MVV Maastricht's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: MVV Maastricht 0-0 Excelsior Rotterdam (17% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).