Match details. WE League, Women. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 10:00 Lagos time.
Form. Tokyo Verdy Beleza have won seven, drawn none and lost three of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L W. Cerezo Osaka Sakai Ladies have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W L.
The numbers. Tokyo Verdy Beleza score 2.6 and concede 1.8 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet. Tokyo Verdy Beleza average 12.3 shots (7.4 on target), 5.3 corners and 0.4 cards a game. Cerezo Osaka Sakai Ladies score 1.8 and concede 1.6 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Cerezo Osaka Sakai Ladies average 9.7 shots (4.7 on target), 4.3 corners and 0.0 cards a game.
The case against. Cerezo Osaka Sakai Ladies's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Tokyo Verdy Beleza to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make Tokyo Verdy Beleza the likelier winners; Tokyo Verdy Beleza are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Tokyo Verdy Beleza. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 85%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Tokyo Verdy Beleza 2-1 Cerezo Osaka Sakai Ladies (8% chance).
The agreed story. Tokyo Verdy Beleza or the draw, an open game.
Cup and European games. A domestic cup: sides rotate, and the two can come from different divisions. Too few cup games on either side to read.
So. A close match: the safest pick that fits.
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).