NTNKT

13:00Wed 28 Oct

FKR

NK TOSK Tesanj vs FK Rudar Prijedor

CLASS D

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THE READ

Match details. Kup BiH, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. NK TOSK Tesanj have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W. FK Rudar Prijedor have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W.

The numbers. NK TOSK Tesanj score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FK Rudar Prijedor score one and concede 2.5 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets and three games without a goal. FK Rudar Prijedor average 9.8 shots (5.2 on target), 5.2 corners and 1.5 cards a game.

The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and NK TOSK Tesanj are not clearly stronger. FK Rudar Prijedor's record still gives them 27% to win.

The read. NK TOSK Tesanj or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make NK TOSK Tesanj the likelier winners; NK TOSK Tesanj are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour NK TOSK Tesanj. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 58%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: FK Rudar Prijedor Over 0.5 goals (FK Rudar Prijedor's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: NK TOSK Tesanj 2-1 FK Rudar Prijedor (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.16

NKT 4 of 5 (80%) · FKR 5 of 6 (83%)77.8%

NK TOSK Tesanj: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · FK Rudar Prijedor: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 70%

NK TOSK TESANJ GOALS

NK TOSK Tesanj Over 0.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.09

NKT 4 of 5 (80%) · FKR 6 of 6 (100%)85%

NK TOSK Tesanj scored in 4 of 5 at home · FK Rudar Prijedor conceded in 6 of 6 away · both last 10: 75%

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.15

NKT 4 of 5 (80%) · FKR 5 of 6 (83%)84.4%

NK TOSK Tesanj: the bet landed in 4 of 5 at home · FK Rudar Prijedor: the bet landed in 5 of 6 away · both last 10: 90% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: FK Rudar Prijedor Over 0.5 goals (FK Rudar Prijedor's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.9%

NK TOSK Tesanj goals →

FK Rudar Prijedor goals ↓

0-05%

1-08%

2-09%

3-06%

4-03%

5-01%

0-14%

1-110%

2-110%

3-17%

4-14%

5-11%

0-22%

1-25%

2-25%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.8%

0-30.9%

1-32%

2-32%

3-31%

4-30.7%

5-30.3%

0-40.2%

1-40.5%

2-40.5%

3-40.4%

4-40.2%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

NK TOSK TESANJLLLLWWWDDW1.40 PPG

FK RUDAR PRIJEDORDLWLLWDWLW1.40 PPG

THE NUMBERS

NK TOSK TESANJ HOMExFK RUDAR PRIJEDOR AWAY

1.60SCORED A GAME1.301.30CONCEDED A GAME1.6020%CLEAN SHEETS30%18%FAILED TO SCORE31%

THE BANK

THE QUALITY READ

1.56POINTS A GAME1.40+0.56GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.20–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.52.2LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.49LEAGUE GAMES10

NK TOSK Tesanj: the quality side - a better goal difference, better form (last 5).

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

53%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

74%

NO · 85/90

NK TOSK TESANJ OR DRAW

89%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

FK RUDAR PRIJEDOR OR DRAW

33%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (9 and 10 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

NK TOSK TESANJxFK RUDAR PRIJEDOR

6GAMES51.67SCORED A GAME0.400.83CONCEDED A GAME2.402.5GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.867%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%33%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%50%BOTH SCORE20%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

NK TOSK Tesanj have scored in 80% of their games.

FK Rudar Prijedor have scored in 70% of their games.

NK TOSK Tesanj kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

FK Rudar Prijedor kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets