FK Slavija Sarajevo vs HNK Capljina
Match details. Kup BiH, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 13:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FK Slavija Sarajevo have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W D L D. HNK Capljina have won two, drawn one and lost seven of their last ten, 0.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W L.
The numbers. FK Slavija Sarajevo score one and concede one a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. FK Slavija Sarajevo average 7.8 shots (3.0 on target), 4.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game. HNK Capljina score 0.2 and concede three a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and four games without a goal.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 32) with penalties if level, and FK Slavija Sarajevo are not clearly stronger.
The read. FK Slavija Sarajevo or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make FK Slavija Sarajevo the likelier winners; FK Slavija Sarajevo are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Slavija Sarajevo. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The bets. Best bet: FK Slavija Sarajevo or Draw at 1.15, 92% on the records (FK Slavija Sarajevo unbeaten in 5 of 5 at home; HNK Capljina failed to win 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 2.5 first-half goals at 1.15. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: FK Slavija Sarajevo or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); FK Slavija Sarajevo or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: FK Slavija Sarajevo 1-0 HNK Capljina (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).