FK Kapaz vs Baku SC
Match details. Azerbaijan Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Şəhər stadionu, Gəncə.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FK Kapaz have won four, drawn two and lost four of their last ten, 1.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Baku SC have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. FK Kapaz score 0.8 and concede 1.2 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Baku SC score 1.2 and concede 2.6 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 95% against the records' 48%. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 39%.
The read. No firm call: FK Kapaz are the better side, but not at this price. FK Kapaz are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FK Kapaz.
The bets. No bet on this one: too close to call. Predicted score: FK Kapaz 1-1 Baku SC (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the Model's table).