Match details. Liga de Expansion MX. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 02:00 Lagos time.
Form. Alacranes de Durango have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W D W W. Atletico Morelia have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L D D L.
The numbers. Alacranes de Durango score 2.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Alacranes de Durango average 5.4 corners and 2.8 cards a game. Atletico Morelia score 1.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Atletico Morelia average 7.1 corners and 2.9 cards a game.
The read. No side to back. A tight game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 48%.
The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.32, 73% on the records (Alacranes de Durango: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; Atletico Morelia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Alacranes de Durango 1-1 Atletico Morelia (13% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
GOALS
Under 5.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY
no price yet
ALA 4 of 5 (80%) · ATL 5 of 5 (100%)94.7%
Alacranes de Durango: under 5.5 goals in 4 of 5 at home · Atletico Morelia: under 5.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · Alacranes de Durango: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Alacranes de Durango's level
Under 4.5 GoalsBACKUPIN CODES
1.11
ALA 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 5 of 5 (100%)87.1%
Alacranes de Durango: under 4.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Atletico Morelia: under 4.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · Alacranes de Durango: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Alacranes de Durango's level
Under 3.5 GoalsMAININ CODES
1.32
ALA 3 of 5 (60%) · ATL 5 of 5 (100%)72.6%
Alacranes de Durango: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home · Atletico Morelia: under 3.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · Alacranes de Durango: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Alacranes de Durango's level
ALACRANES DE DURANGO GOALS
Alacranes de Durango Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.22
ALA 5 of 5 (100%) · ATL 3 of 5 (60%)77.6%
Alacranes de Durango scored in 5 of 5 at home · Atletico Morelia conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · Alacranes de Durango: only games against sides at Atletico Morelia's level · Atletico Morelia: only games against sides at Alacranes de Durango's level
Left off the list: Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read (rule 10))
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 1–112.9%
Alacranes de Durango goals →
Atletico Morelia goals ↓
0-08%
1-010%
2-08%
3-04%
4-01%
5-00.4%
0-17%
1-113%
2-19%
3-15%
4-12%
5-10.5%
0-25%
1-27%
2-25%
3-23%
4-21.0%
5-20.3%
0-32%
1-33%
2-32%
3-31%
4-30.4%
5-30.1%
0-40.5%
1-40.8%
2-40.6%
3-40.3%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.2%
2-50.1%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (a tight game).
FORM · LAST 10
ALACRANES DE DURANGOLWDWWWLDDL1.50 PPG
ATLETICO MORELIAWLDDLWWWWL1.70 PPG
THE NUMBERS
ALACRANES DE DURANGO HOMExATLETICO MORELIA AWAY
1.29SCORED A GAME1.791.00CONCEDED A GAME1.1440%BOTH SCORED70%50%CLEAN SHEETS30%5.36CORNERS A GAME7.142.79CARDS A GAME2.86
THE BANK
THE BANKER MENU
OVER 1.5 CARDS
–
543 OF 573
NO PRICE YET
Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.
Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.
THE QUALITY READ
1.54POINTS A GAME2.00+0.31GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.77+3.8SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.22.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.613LEAGUE GAMES13
Alacranes de Durango: the quality side - better form (last 5).
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
59%
NO · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
37%
NO · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
78%
NO · 85/90
ALACRANES DE DURANGO OR DRAW
51%
NO · 80/85
ATLETICO MORELIA OR DRAW
63%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (13 and 13 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
ALACRANES DE DURANGOxATLETICO MORELIA
6GAMES72.17SCORED A GAME1.141.33CONCEDED A GAME0.863.5GOALS IN THEIR GAMES2.0100%OVER 1.5 GOALS57%67%OVER 2.5 GOALS43%50%BOTH SCORE57%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES7.0–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES12.0
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
TRENDS
Alacranes de Durango have scored in 70% of their games.
Atletico Morelia have scored in 100% of their games.
Alacranes de Durango kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
Atletico Morelia kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetsleague tablecornerscards