PAOK vs AEK Athens
Match details. Greece Cup, Greek Cup - 4. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 19:30 Lagos time. It is played at Stadio Toumbas, Thessaloníki.
Form. PAOK have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L W W. In this competition PAOK have gone W D. AEK Athens have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L L W W. In this competition AEK Athens have gone W W.
The numbers. PAOK score 1.5 and concede 1.4 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. PAOK average 16.2 shots (4.7 on target), 5.0 corners and 2.7 cards a game, with 50% of the ball. AEK Athens score 1.4 and concede two a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. AEK Athens average 17.0 shots (4.9 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings PAOK have won three, drawn three and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, PAOK won one, two were drawn and AEK Athens won one. The last time they met, on 13 May 2026, it finished PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens: PAOK had 15 shots to 13, 55% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make PAOK the likelier winners, but AEK Athens are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AEK Athens. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. AEK Athens's record still gives them 50% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%.
The read. PAOK or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make PAOK the likelier winners; AEK Athens are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour AEK Athens. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); PAOK Over 0.5 goals (AEK Athens's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).