Holstein Kiel vs Hoffenheim
Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Holstein-Stadion, Kiel. The referee is Bastian Dankert.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Holstein Kiel have won two, drawn five and lost three of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L D L. In this competition Holstein Kiel have gone W. Hoffenheim have won four, drawn none and lost six of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W L L.
The numbers. Holstein Kiel score 1.6 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Holstein Kiel average 13.2 shots (2.9 on target), 5.6 corners and 3.8 cards a game, with 53% of the ball. Hoffenheim score 1.9 and concede 1.9 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets. Hoffenheim average 18.6 shots (5.5 on target), 6.8 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.
Head to head. Hoffenheim have won all of the last three meetings. Three of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 18 Jan 2025, it finished Holstein Kiel 1-3 Hoffenheim: Holstein Kiel had 12 shots to 11, 54% of the ball, three yellow cards.
The case against. Holstein Kiel's record still gives them 34% to win.
The read. Hoffenheim to win. An open game. The meetings favour Hoffenheim. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 76%. Three of the last three meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Hoffenheim are a clear winner, no Unders); Hoffenheim Over 1.5 goals (Holstein Kiel's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 5.5 Goals (Hoffenheim are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Holstein Kiel 1-2 Hoffenheim (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).