BMBAY

20:45Wed 28 Oct

FCM

Bayern Munich vs 1. FC Magdeburg

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Allianz Arena, Munich. The referee is Harm Osmers.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Bayern Munich have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D D. In this competition Bayern Munich have gone W. 1. FC Magdeburg have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W D W. In this competition 1. FC Magdeburg have gone W.

The numbers. Bayern Munich score 3.4 and concede 1.1 a game over their last ten, with three clean sheets. Bayern Munich average 23.8 shots (10.2 on target), 8.5 corners and 1.1 cards a game, with 63% of the ball. 1. FC Magdeburg score 1.8 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. 1. FC Magdeburg average 15.9 shots (6.5 on target), 4.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 54% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 94% against the records' 49%.

The read. No firm call: Bayern Munich are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bayern Munich the likelier winners; Bayern Munich are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bayern Munich. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 77%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Bayern Munich or Both Teams Score (the signs point different ways); Bayern Munich Over 1.5 Goals (1. FC Magdeburg's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: Bayern Munich 3-0 1. FC Magdeburg (12% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Bayern Munich or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BAY 9 of 10 (90%) · FCM 5 of 5 (100%)96.9%

Bayern Munich: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BAY 9 of 10 (90%) · FCM 5 of 5 (100%)98.7%

Bayern Munich: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg: over 0.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 95% · each game weighed by who it was against

Over 2.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.16

BAY 9 of 10 (90%) · FCM 3 of 5 (60%)83.5%

Bayern Munich: over 2.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 80% · each game weighed by who it was against

BAYERN MUNICH GOALS

Bayern Munich Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BAY 9 of 10 (90%) · FCM 3 of 5 (60%)97.8%

Bayern Munich scored in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · each game weighed by who it was against

HALVES

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.10

BAY 8 of 10 (80%) · FCM 5 of 5 (100%)87.5%

Bayern Munich: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 84% · on half-time scores · each game weighed by who it was against

CORNERS

Over 7.5 CornersPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BAY 8 of 8 (100%) · FCM 4 of 8 (50%)75%

Bayern Munich's games: over 7.5 corners in 8 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · 1. FC Magdeburg's games: over 7.5 corners in 4 of 8 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · each game weighed by who it was against

Left off the list: Bayern Munich or Both Teams Score (the numbers (96%) and the records (73%) are 23 points apart, and nothing settles it); Bayern Munich Over 1.5 Goals (1. FC Magdeburg's own games don't back it (2 of 5))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 3–0 12.2%

Bayern Munich goals →

1. FC Magdeburg goals ↓

0-02%

1-06%

2-011%

3-012%

4-010%

5-07%

0-10.9%

1-14%

2-16%

3-17%

4-16%

5-14%

0-20.3%

1-21%

2-22%

3-22%

4-22%

5-21%

0-30.1%

1-30.2%

2-30.4%

3-30.4%

4-30.4%

5-30.2%

0-40.0%

1-40.0%

2-40.1%

3-40.1%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.0%

1-50.0%

2-50.0%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

BAYERN MUNICHWDWWWDDWDW2.20 PPG

1. FC MAGDEBURGLWWWLWDWLW1.90 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BAYERN MUNICH HOMEx1. FC MAGDEBURG AWAY

3.40SCORED A GAME2.401.10CONCEDED A GAME1.2030%CLEAN SHEETS50%14%FAILED TO SCORE11%8.50CORNERS A GAME4.501.12CARDS A GAME1.883.32xG1.221.00xG AGAINST1.29

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

BAYERN MUNICH OR DRAW (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

2.43POINTS A GAME1.86+2.71GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+1.43+11.7SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+4.32.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.07LEAGUE GAMES7

Bayern Munich: the quality side - a top-five league club v a smaller league, more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

76%

OKAY · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

75%

NO · 85/90

BAYERN MUNICH OR DRAW

92%

VERY GOOD · 80/85

1. FC MAGDEBURG OR DRAW

23%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (7 and 7 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BAYERN MUNICHx1. FC MAGDEBURG

5GAMES54.00SCORED A GAME2.601.00CONCEDED A GAME0.805.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%100%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%80%BOTH SCORE40%2.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.812.4CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.4

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

Bayern Munich have scored in 90% of their games.

1. FC Magdeburg have scored in 90% of their games.

Bayern Munich kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

1. FC Magdeburg kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetsteam newscornerscards