Bayer Leverkusen vs 1 FC Nuremberg
Match details. DFB Pokal, Round of 32. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at BayArena, Bayer Leverkusen. The referee is Felix Zwayer.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Bayer Leverkusen have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W W W. 1 FC Nuremberg have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D D W W.
The numbers. Bayer Leverkusen score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game over their last ten, with five clean sheets. Bayer Leverkusen average 19.6 shots (7.1 on target), 6.8 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 57% of the ball. 1 FC Nuremberg score 2.2 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. 1 FC Nuremberg average 19.4 shots (6.8 on target), 6.2 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Bayer Leverkusen have won six, drawn two and lost two. Four of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. In the last four, Bayer Leverkusen won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 20 Apr 2019, it finished Bayer Leverkusen 2-0 1 FC Nuremberg: Bayer Leverkusen had 21 shots to 5, 63% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 76% against the records' 49%. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%; six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: six of the last ten meetings went under 2.5.
The read. No firm call: Bayer Leverkusen are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Bayer Leverkusen the likelier winners; Bayer Leverkusen are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Bayer Leverkusen; the meetings favour Bayer Leverkusen. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%.
The bets. Best bet: Bayer Leverkusen Over 1.5 Goals at 1.23, 70% on the records (Bayer Leverkusen scored over 1.5 in 9 of 10; 1 FC Nuremberg conceded over 1.5 in 3 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.12. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Both Teams to Score - Yes (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Bayer Leverkusen are a clear winner, no Unders); 1 FC Nuremberg Over 0.5 goals (Bayer Leverkusen's own games don't back it (5 of 10)). Predicted score: Bayer Leverkusen 2-1 1 FC Nuremberg (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).