BOUBOU

20:45Wed 28 Oct

AST

Bournemouth vs Aston Villa

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. EFL Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:45 Lagos time. It is played at Vitality Stadium, Bournemouth. The referee is Tony Harrington.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Bournemouth have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W L. In this competition Bournemouth have gone W. Aston Villa have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W D. In this competition Aston Villa have gone W.

The numbers. Bournemouth score 2.3 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with four clean sheets. Bournemouth average 16.4 shots (5.4 on target), 4.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game, with 54% of the ball. Aston Villa score two and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Aston Villa average 15.5 shots (6.6 on target), 5.5 corners and 1.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Bournemouth have won three, drawn three and lost four. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, two were drawn and Aston Villa won two. The last time they met, on 7 Feb 2026, it finished Bournemouth 1-1 Aston Villa: Bournemouth had 20 shots to 7, 53% of the ball, two yellow cards.

The case against. Aston Villa's record still gives them 44% to win. The meetings do not back them.

The read. Bournemouth or the draw. A draw is live. An open game. Aston Villa are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Aston Villa. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Bournemouth 2-1 Aston Villa (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Bournemouth or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.32

BOU 5 of 6 (83%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)78.2%

Bournemouth: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 3 of 6 · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES

1.23

BOU 5 of 6 (83%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)89.1%

Bournemouth: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.59

BOU 4 of 6 (67%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)72.9%

Bournemouth: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 67% · H2H 3 of 6 · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

BOURNEMOUTH GOALS

Bournemouth Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.20

BOU 5 of 6 (83%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)87.8%

Bournemouth scored in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa conceded in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 4 of 6 · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

HALVES

2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5PAGE ONLY

1.18

BOU 6 of 6 (100%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)83.3%

Bournemouth: the bet landed in 6 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 83% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.36

BOU 5 of 6 (83%) · AST 4 of 6 (67%)77.1%

Bournemouth: the bet landed in 5 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa: the bet landed in 4 of 6 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · H2H 5 of 6 · on half-time scores · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

CARDS

Over 3.5 CardsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

BOU 4 of 5 (80%) · AST 4 of 5 (80%)80%

Bournemouth's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · Aston Villa's games: over 3.5 cards in 4 of 5 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 80% · Bournemouth: only games against sides at Aston Villa's level · Aston Villa: only games against sides at Bournemouth's level

Left off the list: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 8.3%

Bournemouth goals →

Aston Villa goals ↓

0-07%

1-08%

2-06%

3-03%

4-01.0%

5-00.3%

0-18%

1-112%

2-18%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-26%

1-28%

2-26%

3-23%

4-21.0%

5-20.3%

0-33%

1-34%

2-33%

3-31%

4-30.5%

5-30.1%

0-41%

1-41%

2-41%

3-40.5%

4-40.2%

5-40.0%

0-50.3%

1-50.4%

2-50.3%

3-50.1%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

BOURNEMOUTHDWDWLLWWWW2.00 PPG

ASTON VILLADWLWWDWWWW2.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

BOURNEMOUTH HOMExASTON VILLA AWAY

2.20SCORED A GAME2.401.10CONCEDED A GAME1.1050%CLEAN SHEETS30%12%FAILED TO SCORE38%4.62CORNERS A GAME5.502.75CARDS A GAME1.882.38xG1.780.73xG AGAINST1.48

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.12POINTS A GAME1.38-0.12GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.38+4.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST-3.11.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.08LEAGUE GAMES8

Bournemouth: the quality side - more shots than it allows.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

94%

VERY GOOD · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

90%

VERY GOOD · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

89%

OKAY · 85/90

BOURNEMOUTH OR DRAW

63%

NO · 80/85

ASTON VILLA OR DRAW

74%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

BOURNEMOUTHxASTON VILLA

5GAMES51.60SCORED A GAME1.801.60CONCEDED A GAME1.403.2GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.280%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%60%OVER 2.5 GOALS80%40%BOTH SCORE80%4.8CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.66.8CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES8.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10

BOURNEMOUTH 3 · 30%DRAW 3ASTON VILLA 4 · 40%

6 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED

9 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS

6 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS

3 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS

2019-08-17Bournemouth 2 – 1 Aston Villa

2020-02-01Bournemouth 2 – 1 Aston Villa

2022-08-06Bournemouth 2 – 0 Aston Villa

2023-03-18Bournemouth 0 – 3 Aston Villa

2023-12-03Bournemouth 2 – 2 Aston Villa

2024-04-21Bournemouth 1 – 3 Aston Villa

2024-10-26Bournemouth 1 – 1 Aston Villa

2025-05-10Bournemouth 0 – 1 Aston Villa

TRENDS

Bournemouth have scored in 90% of their games.

Aston Villa have scored in 90% of their games.

Bournemouth kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

Aston Villa kept a clean sheet in 30% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headteam newscornerscards