Match details. EFL Cup, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:30 Lagos time. It is played at Etihad Stadium, Manchester. The referee is Andrew Madley.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Man City have won eight, drawn none and lost two of their last ten, 2.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W W L W. In this competition Man City have gone W. Brighton have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D W W W. In this competition Brighton have gone W.
The numbers. Man City score 3.5 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Man City average 16.1 shots (5.9 on target), 6.1 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 60% of the ball. Brighton score 2.2 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Brighton average 20.6 shots (5.5 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 60% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Man City have won five, drawn three and lost two. Eight of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in eight. In the last four, two were drawn and Brighton won two. The last time they met, on 7 Jan 2026, it finished Man City 1-1 Brighton: Man City had 22 shots to 6, 60% of the ball, seven yellow cards.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger. Brighton's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Man City or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Man City the likelier winners; Man City are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Man City. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%. Eight of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Man City or Draw (1UP) at 1.20, 77% on the records (Man City scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4; led or was unbeaten in 5 of 6 at home). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.17. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Man City or Draw & Over 1.5 (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Man City 2-1 Brighton (10% chance).
PICKSONE LIST
RESULT
Man City or Over 1.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
no price yet
MAN 7 of 7 (100%) · BRI 5 of 5 (100%)100%
Man City: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · H2H 6 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Man City or Both Teams ScoreTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.10
MAN 7 of 7 (100%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)91.9%
Man City: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 6 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Man City or Over 2.5 GoalsTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.21
MAN 7 of 7 (100%) · BRI 4 of 5 (80%)88.8%
Man City: the bet landed in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 88% · H2H 5 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Double Chance: Man City or DrawIN CODES
1.29
88.8%
a proven pattern for games read like this one (team or draw)
Man City (Draw No Bet)PAGE ONLY
1.46
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 2 of 5 (40%)86.9%
Man City won 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) (draws left out) · Brighton lost 2 of 5 away (draws left out) · both last 10: 50% · H2H 2 of 4 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · won 7, refunded 1, lost 4
Man City to Win Either Half: YesTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.44
MAN 6 of 7 (86%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)78.4%
Man City: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 68% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (ru
Man City or Draw (1UP)MAININ CODES
1.20
MAN 4 of 5 (80%) · BRI 5 of 6 (83%)76.7%
Man City scored first 4 of last 5, led or was unbeaten in 4 · led or was unbeaten in 5 of 6 at home · Brighton trailed or failed to win in 4 of 6 away
Man City to WinTAKEN DOWNHELD · the odds board 51%
1.96
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 2 of 5 (40%)73.2%
Man City won 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton lost 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 48% · H2H 2 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
1st Half Result or Match Result: Man CityTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.56
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)73%
Man City: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 61% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (ru
Man City 1UPTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.41
MAN 4 of 5 (80%) · BRI 5 of 6 (83%)71.1%
Man City scored first 4 of last 5, led in 4 · led in 5 of 6 at home · Brighton trailed in 3 of 6 away · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
1X2 - 2UP: Man CityTAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
1.83
MAN 4 of 5 (80%) · BRI 5 of 6 (83%)71.1%
Man City scored first 4 of last 5, led by 2 or won in 4 · led by 2 or won in 5 of 6 at home · Brighton trailed by 2 or lost in 3 of 6 away · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
Man City Win & Over 1.5TAKEN DOWNPAGE ONLY
2.10
MAN 3 of 7 (43%) · BRI 2 of 5 (40%)58.8%
Man City: the bet landed in 3 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 2 of 5 away · both last 10: 34% · H2H 2 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level · the call is Man City or the draw: a knockout game (Round of 16) with penalties if level, and Man City are not clearly stronger (rule 8)
GOALS
Over 1.5 GoalsIN CODES
1.15
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 5 of 5 (100%)89.5%
Man City: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 86% · H2H 6 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
Over 2.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.50
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)57.6%
Man City: over 2.5 goals in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: over 2.5 goals in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 67% · H2H 5 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
MAN CITY GOALS
Man City Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES
1.12
MAN 7 of 7 (100%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)92.2%
Man City scored in 7 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton conceded in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 75% · H2H 6 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
Man City Over 1.5 goalsLEANPAGE ONLY
1.54
MAN 4 of 7 (57%) · BRI 3 of 5 (60%)67.8%
Man City scored over 1.5 in 4 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton conceded over 1.5 in 3 of 5 away · both last 10: 47% · H2H 3 of 6 · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
HALVES
2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5BACKUPPAGE ONLY
1.17
MAN 6 of 7 (86%) · BRI 4 of 5 (80%)88.1%
Man City: the bet landed in 6 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 87% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
Over 0.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY
1.27
MAN 5 of 7 (71%) · BRI 4 of 5 (80%)82.7%
Man City: the bet landed in 5 of 7 (last 10, all venues) · Brighton: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 79% · H2H 6 of 6 · on half-time scores · Man City: only games against sides at Brighton's level · Brighton: only games against sides at Man City's level
Left off the list: Man City or Draw & Over 1.5 (the numbers (64%) and the records (47%) are on opposite sides, and nothing settles it); Under 4.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Man City are a clear winner - no Unders)
SCORELINES
Predicted score
Predicted score 2–19.9%
Man City goals →
Brighton goals ↓
0-06%
1-010%
2-010%
3-06%
4-03%
5-01%
0-15%
1-111%
2-110%
3-16%
4-13%
5-11%
0-23%
1-25%
2-25%
3-23%
4-21%
5-20.5%
0-31%
1-32%
2-32%
3-31%
4-30.5%
5-30.2%
0-40.3%
1-40.5%
2-40.4%
3-40.3%
4-40.1%
5-40.0%
0-50.1%
1-50.1%
2-50.1%
3-50.1%
4-50.0%
5-50.0%
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).
FORM · LAST 10
MAN CITYWWWWWWLWWL2.40 PPG
BRIGHTONLDWWWWWWDL2.00 PPG
THE NUMBERS
MAN CITY HOMExBRIGHTON AWAY
2.80SCORED A GAME2.601.20CONCEDED A GAME0.9050%CLEAN SHEETS60%0%FAILED TO SCORE12%6.12CORNERS A GAME5.751.62CARDS A GAME2.002.29xG2.051.56xG AGAINST0.88
THE BANK
THE QUALITY READ
2.62POINTS A GAME2.00+1.38GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+2.00+2.0SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+5.32.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME2.48LEAGUE GAMES8
Man City: the quality side - more points a game.
Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.
THE BANK'S READ
OVER 1.5 GOALS
83%
OKAY · 80/83
OVER 2.5 GOALS
79%
VERY GOOD · 65/78
UNDER 4.5 GOALS
51%
NO · 85/90
MAN CITY OR DRAW
78%
NO · 80/85
BRIGHTON OR DRAW
26%
NO · 80/85
Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 8 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.
MAN CITYxBRIGHTON
5GAMES52.60SCORED A GAME3.001.40CONCEDED A GAME0.404.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.480%OVER 1.5 GOALS100%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE0%4.2CARDS IN THEIR GAMES2.610.2CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES10.0
Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.
HEAD TO HEAD · LAST 10
MAN CITY 5 · 50%DRAW 3BRIGHTON 2 · 20%
8 of 10BOTH TEAMS SCORED
10 of 10OVER 1.5 GOALS
8 of 10OVER 2.5 GOALS
4 of 10OVER 3.5 GOALS
2021-10-23Man City 4 – 1 Brighton
2022-04-20Man City 3 – 0 Brighton
2022-10-22Man City 3 – 1 Brighton
2023-05-24Man City 1 – 1 Brighton
2023-10-21Man City 2 – 1 Brighton
2024-04-25Man City 4 – 0 Brighton
2024-11-09Man City 1 – 2 Brighton
2025-03-15Man City 2 – 2 Brighton
TRENDS
Man City have scored in 100% of their games.
Brighton have scored in 80% of their games.
Man City kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.
Brighton kept a clean sheet in 60% of their games.
BUILT FROM
form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstxG & xGAclean sheetshead to headteam newscornerscards