Match details. Romania Cup, Group Stage. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 16:00 Lagos time. It is played at Stadionul Progresul Spartac, București.
Form. AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac have won one, drawn one and lost eight of their last ten, 0.4 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L L L W. FC Petrolul Ploiesti have won five, drawn two and lost three of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W D. In this competition FC Petrolul Ploiesti have gone L.
The numbers. AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac score one and concede 1.8 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac average 8.3 shots (3.1 on target), 4.3 corners and 0.7 cards a game. FC Petrolul Ploiesti score 1.8 and concede 1.7 a game in their last six away, with no clean sheets. FC Petrolul Ploiesti average 12.7 shots (5.1 on target), 3.3 corners and 2.3 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 90% against the records' 61%.
The read. No firm call: FC Petrolul Ploiesti are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Petrolul Ploiesti the likelier winners; FC Petrolul Ploiesti are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour FC Petrolul Ploiesti. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 67%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: AFC Progresul 1944 Spartac 1-2 FC Petrolul Ploiesti (9% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).