FC Supra Du Quebec vs Cavalry FC
Match details. Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 22:00 Lagos time. It is played at CEPSUM Stadium.
What's at stake. FC Supra Du Quebec are 4th on 38 points after 28 games, 5 points behind Atlético Ottawa, 1 point clear of Vancouver FC. Cavalry FC are 1st on 60 points after 28 games, 2 points clear of Forge. FC Supra Du Quebec have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Supra Du Quebec have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D W W. In this competition FC Supra Du Quebec have gone W W D W W L. Cavalry FC have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L L. In this competition Cavalry FC have gone W W D L L W.
The numbers. FC Supra Du Quebec score 2.2 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets. FC Supra Du Quebec average 18.1 shots (6.0 on target), 4.9 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Cavalry FC score 1.8 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Cavalry FC average 16.3 shots (4.4 on target), 5.2 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings FC Supra Du Quebec have won none, drawn one and lost three. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. The last time they met, on 26 Sep 2026, it finished FC Supra Du Quebec 0-6 Cavalry FC: FC Supra Du Quebec had 16 shots to 20, 56% of the ball, six yellow cards.
The case against. A knockout game (Semi-finals) with penalties if level, and Cavalry FC are not clearly stronger. FC Supra Du Quebec's record still gives them 40% to win.
The read. Cavalry FC or the draw. An open game. Cavalry FC are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Cavalry FC. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 66%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Cavalry FC Over 0.5 Goals (FC Supra Du Quebec's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); FC Supra Du Quebec Under 1.5 goals (FC Supra Du Quebec's own games don't back it (2 of 5)). Predicted score: FC Supra Du Quebec 1-2 Cavalry FC (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).