Atletico Ottawa vs Forge FC Hamilton
Match details. Canadian Premier League, Semi-finals. Kick-off is Sun 1 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at TD Place Stadium, Ottawa.
What's at stake. Atletico Ottawa are 3rd on 43 points after 28 games, 15 points behind Forge, 5 points clear of Supra du Quebec. Forge FC Hamilton are 2nd on 58 points after 28 games, 2 points behind Cavalry FC, 15 points clear of Atlético Ottawa. A win would take them above Cavalry FC. Atletico Ottawa have nothing left to play for. Forge FC Hamilton have nothing left to play for. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Atletico Ottawa have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W W W. In this competition Atletico Ottawa have gone L L W W W L. Forge FC Hamilton have won four, drawn five and lost one of their last ten, 1.7 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W D. In this competition Forge FC Hamilton have gone D W W W D D.
The numbers. Atletico Ottawa score 1.2 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Atletico Ottawa average 8.3 shots (3.1 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.2 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Forge FC Hamilton score one and concede one a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Forge FC Hamilton average 16.6 shots (5.5 on target), 5.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Ottawa have won two, drawn three and lost five. Five of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Atletico Ottawa won one and Forge FC Hamilton won three. The last time they met, on 17 Oct 2026, it finished Atletico Ottawa 1-2 Forge FC Hamilton: Atletico Ottawa had 7 shots to 20, 52% of the ball, four yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.
The case against. A knockout game (Semi-finals) with penalties if level, and Forge FC Hamilton are not clearly stronger. Atletico Ottawa's record still gives them 30% to win.
The read. Forge FC Hamilton or the draw. Forge FC Hamilton are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Forge FC Hamilton.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Atletico Ottawa 1-1 Forge FC Hamilton (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).