Jong Ajax Amsterdam vs Vitesse Arnhem
Match details. Eerste Divisie, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is Mon 2 Nov, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Sportpark De Toekomst, Amsterdam.
What's at stake. Jong Ajax Amsterdam are 18th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Jong PSV U21, level on points with Jong AZ. A win would take them above Jong PSV U21. Vitesse Arnhem are 15th on 0 points after 0 games, level on points with Roda, level on points with Heracles. A win would take them above Roda.
Form. Jong Ajax Amsterdam have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W L D L. Vitesse Arnhem have won five, drawn one and lost four of their last ten, 1.6 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W L D.
The numbers. Jong Ajax Amsterdam score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet and three games without a goal. Jong Ajax Amsterdam average 17.0 shots (5.9 on target), 4.6 corners and 3.0 cards a game, with 52% of the ball. Vitesse Arnhem score 1.2 and concede one a game in their last six away, with two clean sheets and three games without a goal. Vitesse Arnhem average 14.4 shots (3.6 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.1 cards a game, with 45% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last four meetings Jong Ajax Amsterdam have won one, drawn two and lost one. Two of the four went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in three. The last time they met, on 6 Apr 2026, it finished Jong Ajax Amsterdam 1-6 Vitesse Arnhem: Jong Ajax Amsterdam had 9 shots to 22, 58% of the ball, two yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The case against. Jong Ajax Amsterdam's record still gives them 43% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their xG points to an open game.
The read. Vitesse Arnhem to win. A draw is live. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Vitesse Arnhem the likelier winners; Vitesse Arnhem are the stronger side on form and the table. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 45%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Jong Ajax Amsterdam Over 0.5 goals (Jong Ajax Amsterdam's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Jong Ajax Amsterdam 0-1 Vitesse Arnhem (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).