OFC Nesebar vs PFC Chernomorets Burgas

Match details. Vtora Liga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is Sat 31 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Gradski stadion, Nesebar.

What's at stake. OFC Nesebar are 11th on 18 points after 13 games, level on points with Ludogorets II, level on points with Marek. A win would take them above Ludogorets II. PFC Chernomorets Burgas are 3rd on 25 points after 13 games, level on points with Vihren, 2 points clear of Yantra 2019. A win would take them above Vihren.

Form. OFC Nesebar have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L D L W D. In this competition OFC Nesebar have gone L D L W D W. PFC Chernomorets Burgas have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. In this competition PFC Chernomorets Burgas have gone D W W W W D.

The numbers. OFC Nesebar score 2.8 and concede one a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. OFC Nesebar average 4.4 corners and 1.7 cards a game. PFC Chernomorets Burgas score 2.4 and concede one a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. PFC Chernomorets Burgas average 3.6 corners and 2.8 cards a game.

Head to head. In the last seven meetings OFC Nesebar have won three, drawn one and lost three. Two of the seven went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in two. In the last four, OFC Nesebar won three and one was drawn. The last time they met, on 6 May 2023, it finished OFC Nesebar 1-0 PFC Chernomorets Burgas.

Where it pulls both ways. PFC Chernomorets Burgas are the form side, but the meetings favour OFC Nesebar: in the last seven meetings, OFC Nesebar won three, PFC Chernomorets Burgas won three and one was drawn. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%; five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 50%.

The read. No side to back. A tight game. Form and the meetings point different ways, so I back neither side. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Five of the last seven meetings went under 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Under 3.5 Goals at 1.25, 73% on the records (OFC Nesebar: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 at home; PFC Chernomorets Burgas: under 3.5 goals in 3 of 5 away). Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); PFC Chernomorets Burgas or Under 2.5 Goals (no result call); PFC Chernomorets Burgas or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: OFC Nesebar 1-1 PFC Chernomorets Burgas (13% chance).