Atletico Nacional vs Independiente Santa Fe

Match details. Liga DIMAYOR, Clausura - 5. Kick-off is Fri 30 Oct, 02:30 Lagos time. It is played at Estadio Atanasio Girardot, Medellin.

What's at stake. Atletico Nacional are 1st on 32 points after 15 games, 1 point clear of America de Cali. Independiente Santa Fe are 4th on 28 points after 15 games, 2 points behind Deportivo Cali, 2 points clear of Millonarios. A win would take them above Deportivo Cali.

Form. Atletico Nacional have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W D. In this competition Atletico Nacional have gone W W L W D W. Independiente Santa Fe have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W W. In this competition Independiente Santa Fe have gone W W L W W L.

The numbers. Atletico Nacional score 1.8 and concede 0.5 a game in their last six at home, with three clean sheets. Atletico Nacional average 15.5 shots (5.6 on target), 5.4 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 64% of the ball. Independiente Santa Fe score 1.7 and concede one a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. Independiente Santa Fe average 14.1 shots (5.6 on target), 4.9 corners and 3.2 cards a game, with 46% of the ball.

Head to head. In the last ten meetings Atletico Nacional have won five, drawn four and lost one. Seven of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in six. In the last four, Atletico Nacional won two, one was drawn and Independiente Santa Fe won one. The last time they met, on 26 Feb 2026, it finished Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Santa Fe: Atletico Nacional had 12 shots to 12, 60% of the ball, five yellow cards.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 66% against the records' 44%. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%; seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5, and the meetings settle it.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game.

The read. No firm call: Atletico Nacional are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Atletico Nacional the likelier winners; the meetings favour Atletico Nacional. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 62%. Seven of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.

The bets. Best bet: Over 1.5 Goals at 1.25, 75% on the records (Atletico Nacional: over 1.5 goals in 5 of 6 at home; Independiente Santa Fe: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 10). Backup: Atletico Nacional or Both Teams Score at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 3.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Atletico Nacional or Under 2.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Independiente Santa Fe Over 0.5 goals (Atletico Nacional's own games don't back it (3 of 6)). Predicted score: Atletico Nacional 2-1 Independiente Santa Fe (10% chance).