Pazarspor vs Aliaga Futbol
Match details. Tr4, 3rd Round. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 11:30 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Pazarspor have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D W W W W. Aliaga Futbol have won seven, drawn two and lost one of their last ten, 2.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W W W W.
The numbers. Pazarspor score two and concede 0.7 a game in their last six at home, with two clean sheets. Pazarspor average 8.3 shots (4.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 49% of the ball. Aliaga Futbol score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Aliaga Futbol average 11.3 shots (5.6 on target), 4.3 corners and 1.7 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
The case against. A knockout game (3rd Round) with penalties if level, and Pazarspor are not clearly stronger. Aliaga Futbol's record still gives them 39% to win.
The read. Pazarspor or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Pazarspor the likelier winners; Pazarspor are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Pazarspor. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Predicted score: Pazarspor 2-1 Aliaga Futbol (10% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).