SIMSIM

11:00Tue 27 Oct

ARA

Simal vs Araz Nakhchivan PFK

CLASS B

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Azerbaijan Cup, Round of 32. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 11:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Simal have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L D. Araz Nakhchivan PFK have won one, drawn two and lost seven of their last ten, 0.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L D.

The numbers. Simal score 1.6 and concede 1.7 a game in their last seven at home, with no clean sheets. Araz Nakhchivan PFK score one and concede 2.1 a game over their last ten, with one clean sheet and four games without a goal.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 24% against the records' 51%.

The read. No firm call: Simal are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Simal the likelier winners; Simal are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Simal. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 64%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Araz Nakhchivan PFK or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Simal); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Araz Nakhchivan PFK or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Simal). Predicted score: Simal 2-1 Araz Nakhchivan PFK (10% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

RESULT

Simal or Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 6 of 7 (86%) · ARA 9 of 10 (90%)91.4%

Simal: the bet landed in 6 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

Simal or Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 4 of 7 (57%) · ARA 9 of 10 (90%)80.5%

Simal: the bet landed in 4 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: the bet landed in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75%

GOALS

Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 7 of 7 (100%) · ARA 9 of 10 (90%)96.2%

Simal: over 0.5 goals in 7 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: over 0.5 goals in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 95%

Over 1.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 6 of 7 (86%) · ARA 8 of 10 (80%)87.7%

Simal: over 1.5 goals in 6 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: over 1.5 goals in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 85%

Over 2.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

1.31

SIM 4 of 7 (57%) · ARA 7 of 10 (70%)73%

Simal: over 2.5 goals in 4 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: over 2.5 goals in 7 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 65%

SIMAL GOALS

Simal Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 6 of 7 (86%) · ARA 9 of 10 (90%)91.4%

Simal scored in 6 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK conceded in 9 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 90%

HALVES

1st Half Over 0.5 GoalsPAGE ONLY

no price yet

SIM 5 of 7 (71%) · ARA 8 of 10 (80%)75.5%

Simal: the bet landed in 5 of 7 at home · Araz Nakhchivan PFK: the bet landed in 8 of 10 (last 10, all venues) · both last 10: 75% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: Araz Nakhchivan PFK or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Simal); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10)); Araz Nakhchivan PFK or Over 1.5 Goals (the call backs Simal); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read (rule 10))

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 2–1 9.6%

Simal goals →

Araz Nakhchivan PFK goals ↓

0-05%

1-07%

2-07%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.8%

0-15%

1-111%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-23%

1-27%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.7%

0-31%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.8%

5-30.3%

0-40.5%

1-40.9%

2-40.9%

3-40.6%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

SIMALDLWWLDLDWW1.50 PPG

ARAZ NAKHCHIVAN PFKWDLLLDLLLL0.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

SIMAL HOMExARAZ NAKHCHIVAN PFK AWAY

1.90SCORED A GAME1.001.60CONCEDED A GAME2.100%CLEAN SHEETS10%0%FAILED TO SCORE44%

TRENDS

Simal failed to score in 0% of their games.

Araz Nakhchivan PFK failed to score in 44% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & against