ULUDL

20:00Tue 27 Oct

SDP

UD Llanera vs SD Ponferradina

CLASS D

Pick card Full analysis Share

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. UD Llanera have won four, drawn one and lost five of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W D W. SD Ponferradina have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L W D.

The numbers. UD Llanera score 2.4 and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with one clean sheet. UD Llanera average 8.9 shots (3.7 on target), 3.7 corners and 4.1 cards a game. SD Ponferradina score one and concede 1.6 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. SD Ponferradina average 8.8 shots (3.0 on target), 3.7 corners and 3.3 cards a game.

The case against. UD Llanera's record still gives them 45% to win.

The read. SD Ponferradina to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make UD Llanera the likelier winners; both teams' records favour UD Llanera. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 65%.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: UD Llanera Under 1.5 goals (UD Llanera's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (SD Ponferradina are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (SD Ponferradina are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: UD Llanera 1-2 SD Ponferradina (7% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

SD PONFERRADINA GOALS

SD Ponferradina Over 0.5 goalsIN CODES

1.12

UDL 5 of 5 (100%) · SDP 4 of 5 (80%)88.4%

SD Ponferradina scored in 5 of 5 away · UD Llanera conceded in 4 of 5 at home · both last 10: 80%

HALVES

Under 2.5 first-half goalsPAGE ONLY

1.15

UDL 5 of 5 (100%) · SDP 5 of 5 (100%)100%

UD Llanera: the bet landed in 5 of 5 at home · SD Ponferradina: the bet landed in 5 of 5 away · both last 10: 100% · on half-time scores

1st Half - GG/NG: NoPAGE ONLY

1.24

UDL 3 of 5 (60%) · SDP 4 of 5 (80%)75%

UD Llanera: the bet landed in 3 of 5 at home · SD Ponferradina: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 85% · on half-time scores

Under 1.5 first-half goalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.57

UDL 1 of 5 (20%) · SDP 4 of 5 (80%)56.7%

UD Llanera: the bet landed in 1 of 5 at home · SD Ponferradina: the bet landed in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 70% · on half-time scores

Left off the list: UD Llanera Under 1.5 goals (UD Llanera's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (SD Ponferradina are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (SD Ponferradina are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 1–2 6.6%

UD Llanera goals →

SD Ponferradina goals ↓

0-05%

1-07%

2-07%

3-05%

4-02%

5-00.8%

0-15%

1-111%

2-110%

3-16%

4-13%

5-11%

0-24%

1-27%

2-26%

3-24%

4-22%

5-20.7%

0-32%

1-33%

2-33%

3-32%

4-30.8%

5-30.3%

0-40.5%

1-40.9%

2-40.9%

3-40.5%

4-40.3%

5-40.1%

0-50.1%

1-50.2%

2-50.2%

3-50.1%

4-50.1%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).

FORM · LAST 10

UD LLANERAWWLLLWDWLL1.30 PPG

SD PONFERRADINALWDLWDWLDD1.30 PPG

THE NUMBERS

UD LLANERA HOMExSD PONFERRADINA AWAY

1.70SCORED A GAME0.702.00CONCEDED A GAME1.0010%CLEAN SHEETS50%12%FAILED TO SCORE33%3.71CORNERS A GAME3.674.14CARDS A GAME3.33

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

DRAW OR SD PONFERRADINA (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

0.88POINTS A GAME1.44-1.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME+0.00-2.2SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+0.41.4LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.28LEAGUE GAMES9

SD Ponferradina: the quality side - a better goal difference.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

81%

OKAY · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

48%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

93%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

UD LLANERA OR DRAW

63%

NO · 80/85

SD PONFERRADINA OR DRAW

62%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

UD LLANERAxSD PONFERRADINA

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME0.602.20CONCEDED A GAME0.804.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES1.4100%OVER 1.5 GOALS60%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS0%100%BOTH SCORE40%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES––CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES–

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

UD Llanera have scored in 90% of their games.

SD Ponferradina have scored in 70% of their games.

UD Llanera kept a clean sheet in 10% of their games.

SD Ponferradina kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheetscornerscards