CACDA

21:00Tue 27 Oct

COR

CD Atletico Paso vs Cordoba CF

CLASS A

THE READ

Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time. It is played at Campo Municipal de El Paso.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. CD Atletico Paso have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, 1.3 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W D. Cordoba CF have won five, drawn none and lost five of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W L W L.

The numbers. CD Atletico Paso score one and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Cordoba CF score 1.4 and concede 1.8 a game in their last five away, with one clean sheet. Cordoba CF average 16.9 shots (5.4 on target), 6.6 corners and 3.8 cards a game, with 58% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 52%.

The case against. CD Atletico Paso's record still gives them 53% to win.

The read. Cordoba CF to win. CD Atletico Paso are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour CD Atletico Paso.

The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Cordoba CF Over 0.5 Goals (CD Atletico Paso's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Cordoba CF are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Cordoba CF are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: CD Atletico Paso 0-1 Cordoba CF (8% chance).

PICKSONE LIST

GOALS

Over 1.5 GoalsLEANPAGE ONLY

1.21

CDA 2 of 5 (40%) · COR 4 of 5 (80%)69.4%

CD Atletico Paso: over 1.5 goals in 2 of 5 at home · Cordoba CF: over 1.5 goals in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75%

CD ATLETICO PASO GOALS

CD Atletico Paso Over 0.5 GoalsLEANIN CODES

1.64

CDA 3 of 5 (60%) · COR 4 of 5 (80%)69%

CD Atletico Paso scored in 3 of 5 at home · Cordoba CF conceded in 4 of 5 away · both last 10: 75%

Left off the list: Cordoba CF Over 0.5 Goals (CD Atletico Paso's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Under 4.5 Goals (Cordoba CF are a clear winner - no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Cordoba CF are a clear winner - no Unders)

SCORELINES

Predicted score

Predicted score 0–1 8.5%

CD Atletico Paso goals →

Cordoba CF goals ↓

0-09%

1-011%

2-08%

3-04%

4-01%

5-00.3%

0-19%

1-114%

2-19%

3-14%

4-11%

5-10.4%

0-25%

1-27%

2-25%

3-22%

4-20.7%

5-20.2%

0-32%

1-32%

2-32%

3-30.8%

4-30.3%

5-30.1%

0-40.5%

1-40.7%

2-40.5%

3-40.2%

4-40.1%

5-40.0%

0-50.1%

1-50.1%

2-50.1%

3-50.0%

4-50.0%

5-50.0%

Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).

FORM · LAST 10

CD ATLETICO PASOWDLDLDWLDW1.30 PPG

CORDOBA CFWLLLWLWLWW1.50 PPG

THE NUMBERS

CD ATLETICO PASO HOMExCORDOBA CF AWAY

1.10SCORED A GAME1.501.00CONCEDED A GAME1.7040%CLEAN SHEETS20%38%FAILED TO SCORE9%

THE BANK

THE BANKER MENU

OVER 1.5 CARDS

–

543 OF 573

NO PRICE YET

Both sides' last 5 games point to 5.2+ cards.

DRAW OR CORDOBA CF (1UP)

–

137 OF 146

NO PRICE YET

The tips call a clear winner and every tip has the favourite winning by 2+.

Other bets the bookie sells that won 9 times in 10 or more on games like this one, in each of three spells: 20-24 Oct, 25-29 Oct and 30 Oct-2 Nov. The price is low because the bookie expects it too. A bet with no price yet, or one under 1.09, is not in any code.

THE QUALITY READ

1.12POINTS A GAME1.33+0.00GOAL DIFFERENCE A GAME-0.33–SHOTS FOR MINUS AGAINST+1.21.6LAST 5: POINTS A GAME1.88LEAGUE GAMES9

No quality side: neither club is ahead on more of these.

Each club's own league games in the Bank: points, goal difference, shots for and against, the last 5. A side ahead on most of them is the quality side; its bets show what they won on games like this from 6 Oct to 2 Nov.

THE BANK'S READ

OVER 1.5 GOALS

79%

NO · 80/83

OVER 2.5 GOALS

61%

NO · 65/78

UNDER 4.5 GOALS

93%

VERY GOOD · 85/90

CD ATLETICO PASO OR DRAW

54%

NO · 80/85

CORDOBA CF OR DRAW

44%

NO · 80/85

Each line from both sides' own league games this season, set against their league (8 and 9 games). The two numbers after each read are the line's okay and very good marks.

CD ATLETICO PASOxCORDOBA CF

5GAMES51.80SCORED A GAME1.601.20CONCEDED A GAME1.403.0GOALS IN THEIR GAMES3.080%OVER 1.5 GOALS80%80%OVER 2.5 GOALS60%60%BOTH SCORE60%–CARDS IN THEIR GAMES6.8–CORNERS IN THEIR GAMES11.6

Each side's own league games in our bank before this game; "Home v Away" is the home side's home games and the away side's away games.

TRENDS

CD Atletico Paso have scored in 70% of their games.

Cordoba CF have scored in 90% of their games.

CD Atletico Paso kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games.

Cordoba CF kept a clean sheet in 20% of their games.

BUILT FROM

form · last gameshome / awaygoals for & againstclean sheets