UD Castellonense vs Almeria
Match details. UD Castellonense host Almeria in the Copa del Rey Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct at 19:45 Lagos time. It is played at Camp Poliesportiu Municipal Antonio Escuriet, Castelló.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. UD Castellonense have won six, drawn one and lost three of their last ten, taking 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first, read W L W L W. Almeria have won seven, drawn one and lost two of their last ten, with 2.2 points a game. Their last five show D W W W W.
The numbers. UD Castellonense score 1.4 and concede 0.6 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. They average 8.1 shots (4.8 on target), 2.7 corners and 3.6 cards a game. Almeria score 1.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets and two games without a goal. They average 13.0 shots (5.1 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.5 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways. Almeria are the stronger side on form and the table, but both teams' records favour UD Castellonense.
The case against. UD Castellonense's record still gives them 47% to win.
The read. Almeria to win. A tight game. Almeria are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour UD Castellonense. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 37%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Almeria are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Almeria are a clear winner, no Unders); Over 0.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: UD Castellonense 0-1 Almeria (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).