Match details. Premier League. Kick-off is Mon 26 Oct, 18:00 Lagos time.
Form. Police Xi have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L D D W. Nico United have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L W L L.
The numbers. Police Xi score 0.5 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and six games without a goal. Police Xi average 13.8 shots (5.0 on target), 4.6 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Nico United score 0.5 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and five games without a goal. Nico United average 3.0 corners and 0.5 cards a game.
The case against. Nico United's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Police Xi to win. A tight game. Police Xi are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Police Xi. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 14%.
The bets. Best bet: Police Xi or Draw at 1.37, 73% on the records (Police Xi unbeaten in 6 of 10; Nico United failed to win 5 of 6 away). Leave: Police Xi Over 0.5 Goals (Police Xi's own games don't back it (4 of 10)). Predicted score: Police Xi 1-0 Nico United (12% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).