Match details. Copa del Rey, Round of 128. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 21:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. CD Tudelano have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L W. Real Zaragoza have won six, drawn two and lost two of their last ten, 2.0 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D W W.
The numbers. CD Tudelano score 0.8 and concede 1.3 a game in their last six at home, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Real Zaragoza score 1.8 and concede 1.5 a game in their last six away, with three clean sheets and two games without a goal. Real Zaragoza average 11.2 shots (5.5 on target), 5.9 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 43%.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 128) with penalties if level, and Real Zaragoza are not clearly stronger.
The read. Real Zaragoza or the draw. Their goals for and against make Real Zaragoza the likelier winners; Real Zaragoza are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Real Zaragoza.
The bets. Best bet: Draw or Real Zaragoza at 1.16, 82% on the records (Real Zaragoza unbeaten in 5 of 6 away; CD Tudelano failed to win 5 of 6 at home). Backup: Under 4.5 Goals at 1.11. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: CD Tudelano Under 1.5 goals (Real Zaragoza's own games don't back it (3 of 6)); Real Zaragoza to Win (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: CD Tudelano 1-1 Real Zaragoza (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call).