Aarhus Fremad vs Copenhagen

Match details. DBU Pokalen, Round of 16. Kick-off is Thu 29 Oct, 13:30 Lagos time. It is played at Riisvangen Stadion, Århus.

What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.

Form. Aarhus Fremad have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D L L D. In this competition Aarhus Fremad have gone W. Copenhagen have won six, drawn three and lost one of their last ten, 2.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D W L. In this competition Copenhagen have gone W.

The numbers. Aarhus Fremad score 0.5 and concede 0.7 a game over their last ten, with six clean sheets and six games without a goal. Aarhus Fremad average 7.1 shots (2.4 on target) and 1.2 cards a game. Copenhagen score 2.4 and concede 0.8 a game in their last five away, with three clean sheets. Copenhagen average 15.1 shots (4.9 on target), 5.3 corners and 1.6 cards a game, with 52% of the ball.

Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 79% against the records' 41%.

The case against. Not everything agrees on goals: their goals for and against point to a tight game. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 44%.

The read. No firm call: Copenhagen are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Their goals for and against make Copenhagen the likelier winners; Copenhagen are the stronger side on form and the table.

The bets. Best bet: Aarhus Fremad Under 1.5 Goals at 1.19, 79% on the records (Aarhus Fremad scored under 1.5 in 9 of 10; Copenhagen conceded under 1.5 in 3 of 5 away). Backup: 2nd Half - Over/Under: Over 0.5 at 1.14. It often rescues the bet, but it is no guarantee. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Copenhagen are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Copenhagen are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Aarhus Fremad 1-2 Copenhagen (8% chance).