FC Roskilde vs AGF Aarhus
Match details. FC Roskilde host AGF Aarhus at Roskilde Idrætspark in the DBU Pokalen Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. FC Roskilde have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, averaging 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first, read W D W W D. AGF Aarhus have won three, drawn four and lost three of their last ten, taking 1.3 points a game, with a recent form of W D D L W. In this competition AGF Aarhus have gone W.
The numbers. FC Roskilde score 2.4 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, keeping four clean sheets and averaging 0.0 cards a game. AGF Aarhus score 1.8 and concede 1.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets and two games without a goal. AGF Aarhus average 10.7 shots (2.7 on target), 3.9 corners and 2.0 cards a game, with 47% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last three meetings FC Roskilde have won none, drawn one and lost two. One of the three went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in one. The last time they met, on 7 May 2015, it finished FC Roskilde 0-2 AGF Aarhus.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways. Their goals for and against make FC Roskilde the likelier winners, but FC Roskilde are the stronger side on form and the table, while the meetings favour AGF Aarhus. On goals, their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%, though two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The case against. FC Roskilde's record still gives them 41% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 49%. In addition, two of the last three meetings went under 2.5.
The read. AGF Aarhus to win. An open game. Their goals for and against make FC Roskilde the likelier winners; FC Roskilde are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour AGF Aarhus. Their goals for and against point to an open game.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Over 2.5 Goals (the signs point different ways); Under 4.5 Goals (AGF Aarhus are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (AGF Aarhus are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: FC Roskilde 1-2 AGF Aarhus (6% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).