Esbjerg FB vs Nordsjaelland
Match details. DBU Pokalen, Round of 16. Kick-off is Wed 28 Oct, 17:00 Lagos time. It is played at Blue Water Arena, Esbjerg.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Esbjerg FB have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D D L W. Nordsjaelland have won two, drawn six and lost two of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D D D D D. In this competition Nordsjaelland have gone W.
The numbers. Esbjerg FB score 1.9 and concede 1.7 a game over their last ten, with two clean sheets and four games without a goal. Esbjerg FB average 7.8 shots (4.1 on target), 3.9 corners and 1.2 cards a game. Nordsjaelland score 1.6 and concede 1.9 a game in their last seven away, with one clean sheet. Nordsjaelland average 15.1 shots (4.4 on target), 6.0 corners and 3.6 cards a game, with 55% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last ten meetings Esbjerg FB have won three, drawn four and lost three. Six of the ten went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in five. In the last four, Esbjerg FB won one, one was drawn and Nordsjaelland won two. The last time they met, on 29 Feb 2020, it finished Esbjerg FB 1-2 Nordsjaelland: Esbjerg FB had 16 shots to 12, 41% of the ball, four yellow cards.
The case against. Esbjerg FB's record still gives them 29% to win.
The read. Nordsjaelland to win. An open game. Nothing separates them clearly enough to back a side. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 59%. Six of the last ten meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (Nordsjaelland are a clear winner, no Unders); Under 5.5 Goals (Nordsjaelland are a clear winner, no Unders). Predicted score: Esbjerg FB 1-2 Nordsjaelland (7% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).