Roda JC Kerkrade vs De Graafschap
Match details. KNVB beker, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at Parkstad Limburg Stadion, Kerkrade.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Roda JC Kerkrade have won five, drawn four and lost one of their last ten, 1.9 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W W D L W. De Graafschap have won three, drawn two and lost five of their last ten, 1.1 points a game. Their last five, newest first: D L W D W.
The numbers. Roda JC Kerkrade score 1.3 and concede 0.9 a game over their last ten, with four clean sheets and two games without a goal. Roda JC Kerkrade average 11.8 shots (4.3 on target), 5.7 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. De Graafschap score 1.2 and concede 2.4 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. De Graafschap average 10.7 shots (3.7 on target), 4.0 corners and 1.3 cards a game, with 50% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last nine meetings Roda JC Kerkrade have won four, drawn two and lost three. Three of the nine went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, Roda JC Kerkrade won two and De Graafschap won two. The last time they met, on 12 Dec 2025, it finished Roda JC Kerkrade 3-2 De Graafschap.
Where it pulls both ways. On goals, their xG points to a tight game; their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%; six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5, and the meetings settle it.
The case against. A knockout game (Round of 64) with penalties if level, and Roda JC Kerkrade are not clearly stronger. De Graafschap's record still gives them 21% to win. Not everything agrees on goals: their records put over 2.5 goals at 55%.
The read. Roda JC Kerkrade or the draw. A tight game. Their goals for and against make Roda JC Kerkrade the likelier winners; Roda JC Kerkrade are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Roda JC Kerkrade. Their xG points to a tight game. Six of the last nine meetings went under 2.5.
The bets. Best bet: Roda JC Kerkrade or Draw at 1.32, 79% on the records (Roda JC Kerkrade unbeaten in 9 of 10; De Graafschap failed to win 4 of 5 away). Full cover: De Graafschap Over 0.5 Goals at 1.33. It wins on every score where the best bet loses. Leave: Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Both Teams to Score - Yes (the signs point different ways); Roda JC Kerkrade or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Roda JC Kerkrade 1-0 De Graafschap (13% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).