Helmond Sport vs Willem II Tilburg
Match details. KNVB beker, Round of 64. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 20:00 Lagos time. It is played at MySteel Stadion, Helmond.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Helmond Sport have won two, drawn two and lost six of their last ten, 0.8 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L D L. Willem II Tilburg have won none, drawn two and lost eight of their last ten, 0.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L L L L L.
The numbers. Helmond Sport score two and concede 1.6 a game in their last five at home, with no clean sheets. Helmond Sport average 14.5 shots (5.4 on target), 3.6 corners and 2.9 cards a game, with 48% of the ball. Willem II Tilburg score 1.2 and concede 3.2 a game in their last five away, with no clean sheets. Willem II Tilburg average 11.8 shots (3.0 on target), 5.6 corners and 1.5 cards a game, with 44% of the ball.
Head to head. In the last six meetings Helmond Sport have won none, drawn one and lost five. Four of the six went over 2.5 goals and both teams scored in four. In the last four, one was drawn and Willem II Tilburg won three. The last time they met, on 21 Dec 2025, it finished Helmond Sport 2-2 Willem II Tilburg: Helmond Sport had 14 shots to 16, 45% of the ball, five yellow cards.
Where it pulls both ways. It pulls both ways: their goals for and against make Helmond Sport the likelier winners, but Helmond Sport are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Willem II Tilburg.
The case against. Helmond Sport's record still gives them 42% to win.
The read. Willem II Tilburg or the draw. An open game. Their goals for and against make Helmond Sport the likelier winners; Helmond Sport are the stronger side on form and the table; the meetings favour Willem II Tilburg. Their xG points to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 70%. Four of the last six meetings went over 2.5.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Over 0.5 first-half goals (the signs point different ways). Predicted score: Helmond Sport 1-2 Willem II Tilburg (6% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and an open game).