Dacia Buiucani vs Univer Comrat
Match details. Cupa Moldovei, Round of 16. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 12:00 Lagos time.
What's at stake. It is one game, with penalties if it is level.
Form. Dacia Buiucani have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D L W W. Univer Comrat have won three, drawn three and lost four of their last ten, 1.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: L W L D D. In this competition Univer Comrat have gone W.
The numbers. Dacia Buiucani score two and concede 1.4 a game in their last five at home, with two clean sheets. Dacia Buiucani average 8.4 shots (4.2 on target), 3.4 corners and 3.1 cards a game. Univer Comrat score two and concede 1.8 a game in their last six away, with one clean sheet and two games without a goal. Univer Comrat average 13.0 shots (7.0 on target), 11.3 corners and 3.0 cards a game.
Where it pulls both ways. The prices and the records disagree: the odds board makes it 83% against the records' 50%.
The read. No firm call: Dacia Buiucani are the better side, but not at this price. An open game. Dacia Buiucani are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Dacia Buiucani. Their goals for and against point to an open game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 60%.
The bets. No bet yet: nothing I'd back is priced yet. Leave: Univer Comrat or Over 2.5 Goals (the call backs Dacia Buiucani); Under 4.5 Goals (no unders on an open read); Under 5.5 Goals (no unders on an open read). Predicted score: Dacia Buiucani 2-1 Univer Comrat (8% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (an open game).