Match details. AFC Champions League Two, Group Stage - 3. Kick-off is Tue 27 Oct, 19:15 Lagos time. It is played at Al Zawraa Stadium, Baghdad.
Form. Al Shorta SC have won six, drawn four and lost none of their last ten, 2.2 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W D W D W. Al Hussein Irbid have won four, drawn three and lost three of their last ten, 1.5 points a game. Their last five, newest first: W L W W D.
The numbers. Al Shorta SC score one and concede 0.2 a game in their last six at home, with five clean sheets and two games without a goal. Al Shorta SC average 12.5 shots (4.2 on target), 5.8 corners and 2.2 cards a game. Al Hussein Irbid score 2.4 and concede 1.2 a game in their last five away, with two clean sheets. Al Hussein Irbid average 16.0 shots (6.9 on target), 6.9 corners and 1.7 cards a game.
The case against. Al Hussein Irbid's record still gives them 20% to win.
The read. Al Shorta SC to win. A tight game. Al Shorta SC are the stronger side on form and the table; both teams' records favour Al Shorta SC. Their goals for and against point to a tight game. Their records put over 2.5 goals at 42%.
The bets. Best bet: Al Shorta SC or Draw at 1.41, 80% on the records (Al Shorta SC unbeaten in 6 of 6 at home; Al Hussein Irbid failed to win 3 of 5 away). Leave: Al Shorta SC or Over 2.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read); Al Hussein Irbid Under 1.5 goals (Al Hussein Irbid's own games don't back it (2 of 5)); Al Shorta SC or Over 1.5 Goals (no overs on a tight read). Predicted score: Al Shorta SC 1-0 Al Hussein Irbid (11% chance).
Every score's chance from both teams' checked games, never cut or rescaled. The lit square is the likeliest score that fits the read (the call and a tight game).